Can Republicans expand their House majority in the midterms by redistricting in red states? Donald Trump wants them to try. Republicans in Texas have already started a mid-cycle redistricting in the Lone Star state, hoping to create enough change to capture as many as five new House seats without directly challenging Democrat incumbents.
Trump wants other red states to join the effort, and he’s making progress:
At Trump’s urging, Texas Republicans are looking to redraw congressional maps to favor GOP candidates during a 30-day special legislative session that started this week. Trump has said he wants to carve out five new winnable GOP seats.
But Trump officials are now going beyond just Texas, looking to redraw lines in other states such as Missouri, according to a person familiar with conversations but unauthorized to speak publicly about them. …
Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley said Thursday that he has not yet spoken to any Republicans in his state about redistricting but that it’s up to the Missouri legislature and governor to make the call.
“I’d love to have more Republicans,” Hawley said.
Well, who wouldn’t? Democrats, of course. They have pushed back against this effort as an illegitimate manipulation of elections, and they plan to fight these redistricting plans in court. Courts these days are more inclined to let legislatures operate in this space, at least to a larger degree than in years past, so that strategy may not bear much fruit.
So now Democrats threaten to beat the GOP at their own game:
Earlier this month, Jeffries’ team spoke with New York Gov. Kathy Hochul’s office about redistricting after the news in Texas, according to a person familiar with the conversations. Drawing new congressional lines now could run afoul of the state constitution and undoubtedly draw legal challenges — but it doesn’t appear to be off the table.
“What I’m going to say is, all is fair in love and war,” Hochul said Thursday, adding that she’s “going to see what our options are.”
Democrats have total control in fewer states, but those tend to be the most populous: New York, California, Illinois, Massachusetts, and Maryland, mainly. That offers Democrats a chance to put the squeeze on more seats — at least theoretically.
In practice, though, Democrats may have already beaten themselves. Punchbowl’s Ally Mutnick reminds readers that most blue states forced redistricting into the hands of supposedly non-partisan commissions, which means the fight could be over in the redistricting war before Democrats can even take the field:
Democrats are desperate to push back against President Donald Trump’s brazen attempt to shift the House map in the GOP’s favor. Republicans are trying to muscle through new maps in Texas, Ohio and Missouri, with more red states potentially on deck.
But the two parties aren’t on a level playing field. Over the years, blue states have repeatedly ceded their redistricting authority to commissions. Red states haven’t.
That doesn’t mean that Democrats can’t fight back in the states they control, but it makes the process vastly more complicated. For the most part, Republican governors just have to call their legislatures into special sessions and pass new maps. By comparison, Democrats have to change their state constitutions.
The only states without these obstacles on the blue map are Maryland, Oregon, and Illinois. In most of these states, including California, Colorado, and New Jersey, changes to the state constitution would have to go to voters first. New York actually tried this in 2022 and got shot down in court over their absurdly gerrymandered map. None of these efforts would finish up in time to help out in 2026, with the possible exception of New Jersey, which has a regularly scheduled general election this November. But to get an amendment on the ballot, the legislature has to propose it at least 90 days ahead of that election for voters to review — and that deadline is coming up in less than two weeks. Chop chop.
The New York Times sees another problem for Democrats — they’ve already gone as far as they can go in states where they can fight back:
States where Democrats would have complete control over any redistricting, such as Illinois and Maryland, are already gerrymandered heavily in their favor. Squeezing more Democratic seats out of those states would be a challenge.
The NYT also has a rather rosy view of Democrats’ efforts to put these decisions in the hands of bureaucrats in the other states:
While Democrats have their share of aggressive gerrymanders, blue states have led in embracing reforms to insulate redistricting from politics, such as creating an independent or bipartisan commission to agree on new maps.
Such actions — done in the name of good governance and often with significant support from voters — are now leaving Democrats in a bind.
Nonsense. Democrats did this when they achieved full control in states, knowing that they would control membership of these commissions and ensure their commitment to the status quo. Redistricting should be a partisan process conducted by elected officials with accountability back to the voters, and that’s what Democrats attempted to short-circuit in these states. Now they want to convert back to the proper model after seeing the competitive disadvantage of dereliction of duty, but they don’t have the time to react to it.
Finally, though, the biggest problem for Democrats is time in a different context. The states they want to redistrict are bleeding voters to red states over economic and cultural differences. Even if they successfully squeeze a half-dozen seats or a dozen seats through these efforts for the 2026 election — and I doubt they’d outdo the GOP — they will lose that much or more in 2032 after the next census. The migration to red states will shift House apportionments significantly, which makes this effort nothing much more than rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. Blue-state Democrats should copy red-state policies on economics and tax burdens if they want to compete with the GOP.
Until Democrats recognize the true underlying problem, all they have are deck chairs and a sinking ship, and far too few lifeboats to keep the USS Democrat above the waves.
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