Editors at National Review Online pan recent actions from congressional Democrats.
What the shutdown talk is really about, however, is that Schumer is under heavy pressure from his base to demonstrate that Democrats are willing to take the fight to Trump, responding to the progressive criticisms that they are flailing about as Trump imposes his will. They just view health care spending as the best pretext.
Democrats are confident that they can work with their allies in the media to blame any shutdown on Republicans, which they have had success with in the past. But historically, the public has tended to place the blame on the party that rejects a clean bill and forces a shutdown to make policy demands on issues that aren’t directly related to disagreements over the government spending levels. In this case, Democrats aren’t even asking to restore funding that was cut — they are demanding that Republicans expand a program they have been opposing for the past 16 years.
Some Democrats are pointing to the 2013 shutdown resulting from the Republican effort to defund Obamacare for inspiration. At that time, Republicans were said to have lost the fight politically, but they still came back in 2014 to take over the Senate, gaining nine seats.
However, the story of 2014 is more a story of the disastrous rollout of Obamacare, with its failed website, its skyrocketing premiums, and the fact that millions of individuals lost health insurance plans that they liked despite Barack Obama’s promises that they would not. The very real damage caused by Obamacare overwhelmed any sour memories voters had about the shutdown.
Democrats may turn out to be right in their calculation that any hit they take from the shutdown would, at worst, be short-lived. And in the meantime, they can use the conflict to energize their demoralized base heading into an election year. But there is also a risk that this will backfire spectacularly.
