Fred Bauer writes for National Review Online about a bad idea circulating on Capitol Hill.
Over the past day or so, the so-called nuclear option for the legislative filibuster has enjoyed yet another boomlet in coverage. Some Republicans have mused about detonating the option to break a Democratic filibuster and “reopen” the federal government. However, nuking the filibuster to reopen the government — with just a simple majority in the Senate — would be a self-imposed strategic debacle for Republicans. By doing away with the filibuster here, Republican senators would be surrendering their own powers in perpetuity while giving Democrats their preferred off-ramp for the current government shutdown.
This isn’t eight-dimensional chess. For weeks now, progressive influencers have been calling on Republicans to nuke the filibuster and end the government shutdown. They want that to happen for a variety of reasons. In 2021 and 2022, Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema took the heat for blocking the nuclear option. That spared those Democratic senators with some institutionalist impulses (such as Delaware Senator Chris Coons) from having to disappoint progressive activists by opposing the nuclear option themselves. In a future Democratic Senate majority, the Manchin–Sinema heat shield would be gone. Maine independent Angus King would probably very much like not to be the deciding vote on nuking the filibuster. If Republicans nuke the filibuster now and create that precedent, they end up sparing the Democratic caucus from facing that uncomfortable discussion. A post-nuclear Senate would toss the keys to “the groups.” If there’s any uncertainty about whether every Senate Democrat is really on board with that agenda, it’s far better from progressive activists’ perspectives that Republicans nuke the Senate for them. (And, as Joe Manchin recognized years ago, there is no such thing as a limited “carve-out” via the nuclear option — any “carve-out” puts the whole bird on the table.)
