Ford Motor Co. is considering scrapping the electric version of the Ford F-150, the Wall Street Journal reports.
“In October, the first month since the end of the federal EV tax credit, Ford’s overall EV sales in the U.S. fell 24% from a year earlier,” the WSJ explained. “Ford dealers sold 66,000 gas-powered F-Series pickups, up a tick from a year earlier, and just 1,500 Lightnings, the fewest of any model.”
It’s quite remarkable to see the continuing effects of the most impactful energy policy decision of the year: eliminating the CAFE penalties and regulatory levers that have favored EVs for over a decade. My colleagues former Texas state Rep. Jason Isaac, Trevor Lewis, and I have estimated that these regulations created an indirect incentive worth tens of thousands of dollars per EV, far more than the impact of the consumer tax credit.
See our 2023 paper here.
And our recent update here.
Now comes some evidence that we were pretty close to the mark. Ford would not be considering canceling the F-150 Lightning entirely if they were just going to have to raise the price by $10k to make it pencil out. They fear they’ll need to raise the price so much that they won’t be able to sell many of them.
As my colleague Mark P. Mills would say, put this one in the “no duh” category.
“Ford’s Farley has conceded that, when it comes to EVs, Americans want smaller, affordable models like those sold by Chinese automakers in markets outside the U.S., and not big, pricey trucks,” the WSJ continues. “The company is now racing to build a compact $30,000 EV pickup.”
This is simple physics. EVs make the most sense for small commuter vehicles in the cities. Big trucks that are used to haul loads in more rural areas are the worst-use case. That’s why Tesla and the Chinese made sedans first and why Tesla is only now dipping into trucks after 15+ years of experience building EVs (and with little success so far).
Ford’s attempt to focus their EV marketing on a truck first was destined to fail. They’ll now have to pivot to physical reality since they can’t rely on the federal government to subsidize further follies.
