In a stunning reversal, Bill Gates—who literally wrote a book called “How to Avoid a Climate Disaster”—has declared that while “climate change will have serious consequences… it will not lead to humanity’s demise.” The timing? Just days before COP30 convenes in Belém, Brazil from Nov. 6-21, and Gates specifically addresses his memo to that audience of climate catastrophists.
Gates Goes Full Lomborg
In his lengthy memo, Gates laid out three “truths” that sound remarkably like Danish political scientist Bjorn Lomborg’s long-held positions:
- Climate change is serious, but it won’t end civilization.
- Temperature isn’t the best metric for progress.
- Health and prosperity are the best defense against climate change.
Even the Wall Street Journal noted Gates now sounds like its longtime contributor Lomborg—and the comparison is spot-on. Gates argues that economic development should take priority over emissions reduction, precisely the position Lomborg has championed (and been vilified for) for two decades.
Gates believes the world is likely headed for 2-3°C of warming by 2100, not the apocalyptic scenarios that dominated discourse. He calls for a “strategic pivot” away from near-term emissions goals toward improving lives in poor countries. He still gets some things wrong—attributing moderated scenarios to policy rather than the fact the scenarios were always wrong. But he’s close enough to matter.
While Gates can argue that his views have not changed that much, how he is talking about an issue that has been a major part of his investing and philanthropy is very different from a few years ago. It also signals an important shift among many global elites, who are recognizing the “iron law,” as Dr. Roger Pielke puts it, that economic growth will win out over emissions reductions every time. In all, this letter from Gates marks a good time to take stock of some of the changes in the “climate” around climate change.
The COP That Nobody’s Watching
It may be too early to say that we are past the peak of climate hysteria, but COP attendance and attention may indicate so. COP26 in Glasgow (2021) drew more than 40,000 participants—including 120 world leaders and thousands of journalists—despite limited capacity and lingering COVID-19 restrictions. Attendance peaked at COP28 in Dubai, which had over 97,000 participants.
Fast forward to COP30: Attendance is expected to be around 45,000 people, in part because Belém is struggling to provide enough hotel rooms, but mostly because not as many people are registering. Fewer than 60 world leaders are expected to attend. In another sign of the times, Greta Thunberg sailed to Gaza this year instead of to Brazil. The contrast is stark. The world is moving on.
GFANZ: From Net-Zero to Oil Pipelines
More important than COP attendance, the global climate finance architecture, which Gates takes some swipes at in his memo, is collapsing behind the scenes. The Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ)—launched at COP26 with more than 450 institutions promising $100 trillion for climate finance—is effectively dead.
In late 2024 and early 2025, all six major U.S. banks quit the banking group: JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citi, Wells Fargo, and Morgan Stanley. Canada’s big banks followed. The insurance group disbanded entirely. BlackRock’s exit collapsed the asset managers group.
By January, GFANZ eliminated its net-zero requirements, now welcoming “any financial institution working to mobilize capital.”
Another irony is that GFANZ co-founder Mark Carney is now Canada’s Prime Minister, and he’s pushing new oil pipelines. In July, Carney said a new pipeline to the Pacific coast carrying 1 million barrels daily is “highly, highly likely” to become a national priority project.
The man who created the world’s largest anti-fossil fuel financial alliance is now building oil infrastructure. You can’t script better comedy.
The Rogan Effect
Gates’ pivot comes just days after MIT’s Richard Lindzen and Princeton’s William Happer spent over two hours on Joe Rogan’s podcast dismantling climate catastrophism for millions of listeners. The entire episode is worth a listen for anyone who is interested in the topic and in the reasons why there is so much institutional pressure on scientists to maintain the narrative—regardless of evidence.
Happer, who argues more CO2 will benefit the world, told Rogan the CO2 focus has “set back serious climate study by 50 years.” Lindzen explained how climate systems—governed by unsolvable partial differential equations—make long-term predictions unreliable.
What Happens From Here
Predictably, the climate establishment hasn’t taken Gates’ apostasy well. Penn State’s Michael Mann called it “horrifying” and accused Gates of “soft climate denial.” Princeton’s Michael Oppenheimer worried Gates’ words would be “misused,” and Axios called it an “escalation” with scientists.
But the convergence against these hysteria peddlers tells the story: Gates’ memo, COP30’s diminished interest, GFANZ’s collapse, Carney building pipelines, one of the most popular podcasts in the world hosting skeptical scientists, even Thunberg sailing elsewhere. The catastrophist narrative is losing its grip, and more people are recognizing, as Gates now does, what Life:Powered and our allies have been saying for many years: Lifting people from poverty protects them from an always-changing climate better than any scheme to reduce carbon emissions.
As COP30 unfolds with a fraction of Glasgow’s fanfare, what we’re witnessing is not climate denial, but a growing climate realism. The question is whether the establishment will follow Gates’ lead or keep doubling down while the world moves on.
