President Donald Trump has dominated the Republican Party for a decade, and in many ways, it has been good for the GOP and conservatism.
Republicans won two of the three presidential elections (after losing two straight and four of six). Republicans control Congress, and for the first time in forever, the Supreme Court has a conservative majority. It even struck down Roe v. Wade.
Trump’s policy accomplishments are also real. Taxes are lower, especially for the middle class. Illegal immigration was controlled for four years, and it’s getting under control again. And for the first time since the Cold War ended, we are avoiding senseless wars of choice.
But just as Trump’s policy record is mixed (increased spending, federal support for in vitro fertilization, oodles of corporate welfare), so is the Trump-era political record. If you step back from the current political balance in Washington, D.C., you see a troubling trend, highlighted by the recent blowouts in New Jersey and Virginia:
Republicans, in the Trump era, are mostly losing.
Yes, Trump wins. Yes, when Trump is on the ballot, the downballot Republicans get some lift from Trump. But when Trump isn’t on the ballot, the Trump era is a story of GOP loss.
This is a big problem for Republicans because Trump will never be on a ballot nationwide again. It’s very possible that after Trump is gone, Republicans will experience their darkest hour and lowest point since the New Deal.
Here’s one measure of the partisan shift in the Trump era: In 2016, Republicans controlled 31 governorships and 68 legislative chambers. Come January, the GOP will control only 26 governorships and 57 legislative chambers (more than a 15% reduction on both scores).
In the Trump era, here’s the rule: Elections in which Trump is on the ballot, the GOP does fine. In elections in which he is not, the GOP does poorly.
