By John A. Charles, Jr.
Recently the Oregon Department of Energy (ODOE) published its “Oregon Energy Strategy.” State legislators who mandated the 2023 study assumed we already had the ideal strategy: eliminate the use of fossil fuels in Oregon. They had simply tasked ODOE to “strategize” over how to reach that goal.
ODOE director Janine Benner told the legislature all was well. “It’s not a matter of when the energy transition [away from fossil fuels] will occur”, she said; “It’s already happening.”
If so, it’s proceeding at glacial speed. ODOE’s webpage on Oregon’s electricity supply shows that, in 2012, electricity used in Oregon came from hydro (46%), coal (33%), natural gas (12%), wind (5%), and nuclear (3%). Three other sources of “renewables” – solar, biomass, and geothermal – totaled 0.6%. By 2023, the totals were hydro (34%), natural gas (32%), coal (11%), wind (7%), solar (4%), nuclear (3%) and biomass/geothermal (1%).
A new category known as “unspecified” accounted for nearly 20% of generation in 2023. Assuming this mirrors the overall northwest mix, Oregon’s reliance on coal and gas totals at least 37%, making fossil fuels the dominant source of electricity.
While wind and solar are growing, getting to just 11% after decades of subsidies is not impressive. More concerning is the fact that both sources are intermittent. For engineering reasons, both the supply of and demand for electricity must be in equilibrium at all times. A sudden drop in generation caused by weather could lead to blackouts.
Grid operators need “dispatchable” energy sources controlled instantaneously by computerized systems. Wind and solar are the opposite of dispatchable and subject to the variabilities of weather, making them unsuited for the utility grid.
The energy transition isn’t happening because it can’t happen. Decarbonization is in direct conflict with the demands of a modern economy. Shutting down all coal and gas plants and ending the sale of all fuels would instantly transport us back to the 19th century. Nobody wants to live there, and politicians know that.
Nothing reveals the truth of this more than the posturing going on in California over the closure of gasoline refineries. With Valero shutting down its Beneficia refinery, 10% of the state’s refining capacity will vanish. Chevron has already moved its corporate headquarters to Texas and plans to shutter a refinery.
Gavin Newsom has directed the California Energy Commission to explore getting into the refining businessto make up the difference. His real strategy is to tax and regulate fossil fuels without actually driving them out of business. Carbon rationing generates billions of dollars for political spending. That’s more important to politicians than the “transition.”
Gov. Kotek isn’t any different. Transportation is Oregon’s largest source of greenhouse gases, and Oregon has long tried to “get people out of their cars” with no success. But on November 1, the governor was given a chance to cut auto emissions when a fuel spill in Snohomish County, Washington, shut down the Olympic pipeline. It delivers 90% of Oregon’s automotive and aviation fuel.
Instead of embracing the opportunity and telling Oregonians to travel less for the sake of the planet, Gov. Kotek declared a state of emergency on November 24 to ensure that enough fuel reached the state. The Environmental Quality Commission (EQC) met to discuss how DEQ’s carbon rationing programs – the Climate Protection Program and the Clean Fuels Program – could be temporarily modified to allow fuel to be imported on Washington ships and trucks.
The EQC approved a waiver of DEQ carbon regulations and authorized an extension past December 1 if necessary. EQC chair Matt Donegan said, “We don’t want to disrupt the economy.” Yet, the entire purpose of DEQ’s carbon rationing programs is to disrupt the economy. That’s how an “energy transition” takes place.
By waiving environmental regulations at a time of emergency, DEQ is using the California playbook of slowly strangling the economy without killing it outright. We will live to be taxed another day.
Oregon’s political leaders consistently made bad choices over decades. They’ve embraced energy poverty, and now electricity demand is skyrocketing. The fuels needed to power new data centers and supply mandates for electric vehicle purchases are nuclear, coal, gas and hydro. None of which are available for new generation due to environmental regulations.
Welcome to the 19th century. Stock up on candles.
John A. Charles, Jr. is President and CEO of Cascade Policy Institute, Oregon’s free market public policy research center.
