Thomas Lindsay writes for the Federalist about a disturbing new study involving American school kids.
Increasingly widespread high school grade inflation can cost students more than $200,000 in lost earning potential per teacher per year, finds a groundbreaking new study. Authored by Jeffrey T. Denning, Rachel Nesbit, Nolan Pope, and Merrill Warnick, this rigorous analysis of high school data from Los Angeles and Maryland reveals that widespread grade inflation isn’t harmless feel-good pedagogy—it’s actively sabotaging students’ futures.
Average high school GPAs have risen nearly half a letter grade over the past four decades, even as standardized test scores decline. The divergence screams inflation: teachers awarding higher grades for the same or lesser performance.
The study, a working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research, distinguishes two forms of leniency. When teachers inflate grades across the board—giving higher marks than students’ actual performance warrants—the effects ripple far beyond the classroom.
A single teacher who is noticeably more lenient can subtly suppress test scores the following year, slightly lower the chances of students graduating, and nudge them toward less rigorous postsecondary paths, particularly two-year colleges. Over a lifetime, these small shifts add up in a staggering way: Researchers estimate that the cumulative effect of widespread grade inflation can cost students more than $200,000 in lost earning potential per teacher per year.
There is another, narrower form of leniency: pushing marginal students just over the failing line. This “passing grade inflation” can help students finish high school and increase retention rates, especially among those who might otherwise drop out.
But the benefits are short-lived, and the long-term payoff in career readiness and earningsoften remains limited. The study—”Easy A’s, Less Pay: The Long-Term Effects of Grade Inflation”— shows that early, unchecked leniency sets students on trajectories that favor comfort over mastery, masking gaps in knowledge and ultimately holding them back.
