Editors at National Review Online critique the results of President Donald Trump’s latest negotiation.
State Department official John Negroponte made the droll comment after Richard Nixon’s 1972 Christmas bombing campaign in North Vietnam that “we bombed them into accepting our concessions.”
A similar verdict seems appropriate for President Trump’s war on Iran.
The memorandum of understanding that both parties are signing is lopsided in Iran’s favor. The main concession from the Iranians is reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but the commercial artery won’t be returning to the status quo ante. The memorandum says that Tehran will not charge fees “for 60 days,” implying that Iran will begin extracting tolls thereafter. In exchange, the U.S. is lifting its blockade on Iranian ports and agreeing to let the Iranians sell oil, a source of revenue totaling tens of billions of dollars a year.
The memorandum also says that the U.S. will unfreeze Iranian assets — good for another roughly $24 billion — “upon the implementation of this M.O.U.”; in other words, perhaps within weeks. We wonder how many proverbial pallets will be needed to deliver this cash windfall to Iran.
The agreement also contemplates the lifting of all U.S. sanctions and delivery to Iran of a $300 billion reconstruction fund raised by its neighbors, dependent on a final agreement on Iran’s nuclear program. The terms are studiously vague, although there is a specific reference regarding the enriched uranium to “down-blending on site under the supervision of the I.A.E.A.” (which was a key part of Barack Obama’s Iran deal from which Trump rightfully withdrew in his first term). It’s all supposed to be worked out within 60 days, but that period is extendable.
This section also refers to Iran’s “nuclear needs,” presumably a euphemism for enrichment. In a lamentable press availability at the G-7 summit, President Trump explicitly said Iran should be able to enrich at low levels. This, coupled with Trump’s consistently dismissive remarks about obtaining Iran’s nuclear “dust,” suggests that Iran won’t give up enrichment or hand over its uranium, both of which have long been considered key benchmarks for setting back Iran’s program.
