A recent Seattle Times analysis of IRS migration data for 2022-2023 reveals a stark truth about King County. The county isn’t just losing residents; it’s an uncontrollable migration into surrounding suburbs. King County saw a net loss of roughly 13,000 people through domestic migration during the period. More tellingly, there was a net in-state loss of 17,600 residents moving to other Washington counties, while out-of-state migration actually showed a small net gain.
Yet, if you are to believe the majority of the media, everything is great in the greater Seattle metro.
According to the IRS data, outbound movers took $8.7 billion in adjusted gross income with them, while inbound brought only $6.7 billion, a nearly $2 billion net drain on the local economy. The biggest winners? Pierce County (net +6,700), Snohomish County (+6,200), and other nearby areas. People aren’t just fleeing to Texas or Florida in droves. They’re moving 20 or 30 minutes down the road to escape Seattle and King County’s dysfunction.
Bellevue is one of the biggest beneficiaries.
This isn’t a mystery. It’s the predictable result of years of bad policy. It’s the results of the policies that Mayor Katie Wilson and her progressive allies continue to double down on.
The data makes clear that housing affordability is the one of the primary drivers. King County and Seattle have become so expensive that working families and working-class residents are being pushed into neighboring counties where they can actually afford to buy a home or rent without sacrificing quality of life.
Instead of aggressively increasing housing supply through deregulation and faster permitting, Seattle, has leaned into government heavy solutions. So called solutions that include more social housing, including new taxes to pay for the housing, and continued regulatory barriers. These approaches have failed for years, and yet Seattle continues to push solutions that don’t work. Adding layers of bureaucracy and taxpayer-funded projects doesn’t build homes faster, it slows everything down and raises costs for everyone else.
Small businesses feel this acutely. When employees can’t afford to live near their jobs, businesses struggle to hire and retain talent. When customers move to the suburbs, local shops and restaurants lose foot traffic. The ripple effects hit the small business community hardest.
Seattle’s approach to massive budget shortfalls has centered on new or expanded taxes rather than meaningful spending restraint. Proposals for city-level capital gains taxes, vacancy taxes, and other revenue grabs send a clear message to residents and businesses – if you succeed here, we’ll take more of what you earn.
Washington already has one of the highest tax burdens in the country when sales, property, and business & occupation taxes are factored in. Layering on more doesn’t solve underlying problems, it accelerates the exodus. Higher-income households are disproportionately leaving, taking their economic activity with them.
Affordability doesn’t exist in a vacuum. Persistent issues with open drug use, property crime, and visible disorder in Seattle make the city less livable. When families feel unsafe or their neighborhoods decline, they vote with their feet, often to nearby cities with stronger enforcement and cleaner public spaces.
Washington Policy Center has long warned that high taxes, heavy regulation, and anti-growth policies would drive people and investment away. The latest IRS data is simply confirming what many of us have been saying for years.
Seattle and King County don’t need more of the same failed progressive experiments. They need business focused solutions. Dramatically faster housing permitting, lower barriers to construction, targeted public safety improvements, and a tax environment that rewards work and investment rather than punishing success.
Until that happens, expect more “local” moves and more economic pain for the communities left behind.
