Hal Brands analyzes a key challenge related to artificial intelligence.
For years, experts have predicted that artificial intelligence would revolutionize world politics. History may record 2026 as the moment the revolution arrived. From the start of this year, continuous developments have underscored the possibilities and perils of the AI era, from the use of AI in U.S. military interventions to the emergence of AI cyberweapons that can significantly outperform human operators. “Loss of control” episodes—cases in which AI models escape human control and supervision—have become more common. U.S. officials, including President Donald Trump, tout the American lead at the frontier of AI development, even as they worry about what dangers lurk over the horizon.
Some experts believe that humanity is within striking distance of artificial general intelligence: technology capable of performing a wide array of tasks as well as or better than humans. There is growing speculation that artificial superintelligence, or ASI—a slippery concept, loosely defined as AI models that vastly exceed human capabilities across all tasks and domains—could arrive within a few years. Today’s top AI models, by contrast, surpass human capabilities only in narrow areas such as mathematics and data processing and lag human capabilities in areas such as common sense and deep reasoning. The emergence of ASI might bring breakneck economic and scientific progress or unlock game-changing military advances that upend the global balance of power. But it could also fundamentally shift the relationship between machines and humanity, perhaps, in the most dire scenarios, allowing near-omnipotent systems to eradicate their human creators.
Much of this is hypothetical. It’s still uncertain whether ASI is possible, when it might be developed, or whether it could be kept aligned with the flourishing of humanity. These uncertainties dominate discussions of any policy response. But because the implications of ASI would be seismic, it is important to assess how the United States might approach the technology and how different ASI strategies would affect Washington’s engagement with the world.
One option is to pursue supremacy by sprinting toward ASI while holding rivals back.
The post America faces ‘superintelligence dilemma’ appeared first on John Locke Foundation.
