Helen Raleigh writes for the Federalist about a poor approach to rising housing prices.
The U.S. Senate has passed a bipartisan bill, titled “The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act,” aiming to make housing more affordable. However, similar to other misleading pieces of legislation — such as the infamous Inflation Reduction Act, which is actually a massive climate-change bill that worsened inflation — this new housing bill may have the opposite effect on housing affordability than what its title suggests.
The newly introduced bill is co-led by Sens. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., and Tim Scott, R-S.C. A key assumption of the bill is that restrictive single-family zoning is a primary cause of limited housing supply and high housing costs. The legislation includes key policy proposals that Warren has previously championed, such as offering grants to state and local governments that reform exclusionary zoning rules and permit more high-density housing in areas previously designated for single-family homes.
However, the bill’s sponsors overlook empirical evidence from left-wing cities and states, such as Minneapolis, Oregon, and California, where Democrat legislatures have already effectively eliminated exclusive single-family zoning in favor of higher-density housing — the kind of reform for which Warren advocates.
A 2023 study found that upzoning resulted in an insignificant housing supply increase of less than one percent within three to nine years, offering no real improvements for low- to moderate-income renters.
Research about Minneapolis’ zoning reform shows upzoning fueled speculation, driving single-family home prices 3-5 percent higher than in comparable border areas. Similarly, post-single-family home zoning ban analyses show median home values in Oregon continued rising sharply, reaching $509,539 in May 2022, representing an increase of 19.7 percent from a year prior.
Upzoning reforms for which Warren and other Democrats advocate have clearly proven to be ineffective in achieving their goals. Instead of making housing more affordable, these policies have centralized zoning authority, eroding local control and undermining property rights.
