Matthew Continetti argues that Democrats “may already have lost the 2028 election.”
Stephen A. Smith has a confession to make. The 58-year-old ESPN personality is mulling a run for the Democratic presidential nomination. “I’m giving strong consideration to being on that debate stage for 2027,” he told “CBS News Sunday Morning” on Feb. 15. If Mr. Smith enters the race, he won’t be alone. The 2028 Democratic primary is wide open—and the emerging field of candidates is lackluster.
Every Democrat preparing to run has weaknesses. At this writing, only two potential candidates have double-digit support in the RealClearPolitics polling average. Both are vulnerable.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris leads with 31%, followed by California Gov. Gavin Newsom at 22%. From there, the drop-off is steep. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is in third place with 9%. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is close on Mr. Buttigieg’s heels. The only other Democrat to earn more than 5% in national polls is Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro.
It’s early, and the contest will attract upstarts, insurgents and opportunists. Such outsiders have seized the moment in the past—sometimes successfully (Barack Obama in 2008; Donald Trump in 2016), sometimes not (Howard Dean in 2004; Bernie Sanders in 2016 and 2020). No one knows who they will be.
But they won’t be conservative Democrats. There are hardly any left. Only 8% of Democrats call themselves conservative, according to Gallup. Fifty-nine percent consider themselves liberal or very liberal. A CNN poll last summer found that one-third of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents think of themselves as democratic socialists like Ms. Ocasio-Cortez. That share is 42% among those under 35.
Socialism’s rise raises troubling questions about the party’s future. The shift has electoral consequences. A radicalized base, animated by anti-Trump resistance, may be an asset in special and midterm elections. But open borders, social disorder and transgender ideology have hurt Democrats in presidential years. They will do so again if unchecked.
