Iran’s actions hurt the world’s poor

[A] whole bunch of people around the world are going to starve to death because of the Iranian stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz.

This isn’t me being Paul Ehrlich, this is just an observation that when fertilizer doesn’t get to farmers, they grow fewer crops, and when farmers grow fewer crops, food prices go up, and when food prices go up, the poorest people in the world starve. That feels like it should be a bigger deal in our news cycle, doesn’t it? Read on.

It’s not that no ships can pass through the Strait of Hormuz; it’s that they need to be approved by the Iranians either through geopolitical alliance; pay a “toll”; or take their chances that they don’t run into an Iranian missile, drone, or mine. …

… Keep in mind, before the war, on average about 138 ships per day passed through the Strait of Hormuz. …

… Back on March 12, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace sounded the alarm about how the drastic reduction of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz affected farmers’ access to fertilizer, even in countries quite far from the Persian Gulf. …

… According to a United Nations report, in 2024, the countries that most relied on fertilizers imported by sea and originating from the Persian Gulf region included Sudan, Sri Lanka, Australia, Tanzania, Somalia, Pakistan, Thailand, Kenya, and New Zealand.

There’s never a good time for fertilizer — and the cost of transporting it! — to become significantly more expensive, but there are definitely times that are worse than others. And this time of year, early spring, is a particularly bad time if you’re in the northern hemisphere. …

… Hey, guess which countries drastically reduced their fertilizer exports earlier this month? Which regimes are most inclined to put the squeeze on vulnerable countries to maximize their leverage? …

… China is tightening its curbs on fertilizer exports as the war in Iran disrupts trade of key crop nutrients, driving up prices globally.