Matthew Continetti analyzes the impact of Iran’s recent actions in the military conflict with the United States.
The long-term consequences of war with Iran are unknown. The short-term results are obvious: America and Israel are winning—bigly. Since the launch of Operation Epic Fury and Operation Roaring Lion, the U.S. has struck more than 5,500 targets in Iran. The regime’s leadership was wiped out in the campaign’s opening moments. Its successors hide in bunkers and safe houses.
U.S. and Israeli fighters and bombers dominate Iran’s skies. America is hitting Iran’s war machine, while Israel targets the regime’s apparatus of repression and its nuclear program. The regime’s capacity to retaliate has deteriorated. Ballistic missile attacks are down by 90% and drone attacks by 83%. The Iranian navy is underwater.
Iran’s internet connectivity is shut down, so it’s hard to know what’s happening inside the country. Hence most press coverage focuses on Iran’s external behavior. The cost has been real. At this writing, seven U.S. servicemembers have been killed and 140 wounded; 31 Israeli civilians have been killed and more than 1,400 hospitalized; and oil is above $90 per barrel.
When reporters and analysts describe Iran’s retaliation, however, they rarely stop to consider what it says about the regime. They’re too busy to ponder what Iran’s missiles, drones and mines reveal about the nature of the Islamic Republic: what it’s willing to do to survive and why it poses an unacceptable risk to the United States.
The fact is that Iran’s conduct in the war shows exactly why it must be crippled. True, military action carries a price. Yet in lashing out against the world, the Iranian regime has made its own best case for U.S. intervention.
The first thing Iran tried in response to Operation Epic Fury, for example, was to expand the conflict. To date, Iranian forces have launched missiles and drones at 12 countries, including at nations thought to be friendly with the Islamic Republic. The attacks not only targeted U.S. military installations, but also transportation, energy and residential infrastructure. Iran made no effort to protect civilians.
