J.T. Young writes for American Greatness about factors likely to influence this year’s elections.
Ten months ahead of November’s midterms, political and economic crosscurrents are colliding. Which of these conflicting trends prevails will greatly shape the next two years. And possibly even longer.
Midterm elections are always important. Besides gauging the country’s political mood, they have proven integral to maintaining America’s political equilibrium.
They are the “ebb” to the “flow” of America’s political tide. Historically, every four years, a large tide of voters goes to the polls and elects a president. Then every two years, the large voter flow ebbs back and the president’s party suffers accordingly.
This midterm is particularly important to Trump because he has proven susceptible to being baited by his opponents. After 2018, Rep. Nancy Pelosi returned to the House speakership and unrelentingly harassed Trump over the last two years of his first term. These distractions and obstructions—especially during COVID—were undoubtedly a factor in Trump’s narrow 2020 electoral college defeat.
Today’s political crosscurrents are pronounced. As already mentioned, the president’s party historically loses seats. The last two two-term presidents, George W. Bush and Barack Obama, suffered congressional losses averaging 22 House seats and 7.5 Senate seats.
Such losses would give Democrats control of Congress: a House majority larger than Republicans’ current narrow one and a Senate majority larger than Republicans’ current six-seat one. Such outcomes would end Trump’s legislative agenda, and Democrats could set their own. To understand the potential impact, play back the recent funding impasse when Democrats shut the government down for the longest period ever — despite not having control of either chamber.
While Trump would be able to veto Democratic legislation and Republican numbers would be ample to uphold his vetoes, Democrats would have a formal hand in shaping the political agenda. This could greatly help their 2028 presidential prospects.
