How can states raise student achievement at scale? That’s an eternal question, made even more important in an era where education dollars are tight and the competition fierce.
Historically, states have chosen one of two routes. Invest more money in public schools; and hope the additional money produces higher student outcomes. Or, invest in school choice programs, where the state provides money for the child’s tuition — usually at a private school — and trust such programs result in improved academic outcomes.
Increasingly a growing number of states are choosing the latter route. As of early 2026, 33 states and Washington DC operate over 70 school choice programs (vouchers, ESAs, tax credit scholarships) with nearly 1.5 million students participating.
As programs grow it is important to ask what impacts these choices have on school choice programs and the public schools?
A recent study by Patrick Graff, Senior Fellow at the American Federation for Children, sought to answer that question. Using methodology that measures competitive pressures on public schools as well as the effects of additional school spending on student achievement, Graff estimated the relative return on investment of each approach. What he found was surprising. Graff writes:
The results are striking scaling the tax credit scholarship program from 15,000 to over 100,000 students produced achievement gains for public school students that were – conservatively – over 11x larger than if that same funding had been used to increase state K-12 education budgets instead. Critics warned that expanding the state tax credits available to fund private school scholarships would come at the expense of public schools across the state. The best evidence we have suggests otherwise. Florida’s policy environment benefited both public and private school students, as the effects of competition created a return on investment an order of magnitude larger than simply spending more. Creating and growing private school choice in Florida significantly moved the needle and did so at scale.
Florida’s results are inspiring. Policymakers in other states wondering how to allocate resources should reconsider school choice. As the research suggests, school choice should be thought of not only as a way to create options for students, but also a major intervention to a system that can improve outcomes for all students.
Access the study here.
