Matthew Continetti ponders his electoral crystal ball.
The truth is that any outcome is possible.
Democrats could win full control of Congress. Or they could split the House or Senate. Or they might fail to win a majority anywhere. Uncertainty reigns, because Democrats face structural obstacles as well as a fully engaged President Trump. He’s determined to avoid a repeat of his first midterm, when Democrats won 41 House seats and promptly impeached him twice. He’s hoovering up money—the GOP cash advantage is huge—and endorsing candidates early to avoid costly infighting. To secure his legacy and prepare Republicans for the 2028 presidential campaign, Trump must stave off a Democratic takeover.
The odds are against him. Polymarket shows a 70 percent probability that Democrats will win the House, with a similar chance of Republicans maintaining the Senate. History backs this up. Since the New Deal, the president’s party has gained House seats in just three midterms: 1934, 1998, and 2002. More recently, voters have opted for change in 11 of the past 13 elections.
Midterm results are highly correlated with presidential approval. And Trump’s rating is middling. With a job approval of 46 percent, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average, Trump is more popular than he was at this point in his first term. He’s around where George W. Bush and Barack Obama were at similar junctures in their second terms. The problem? Both Bush and Obama lost Congress the following year.
But Republicans can take solace in the Democrats’ woes. The party is leaderless, rudderless, and cash-poor. Democrats haven’t been this unpopular in 35 years. Their lead in the generic ballot is paltry. They bounce from issue to issue, defending illegal immigration in the morning, trans athletes in the afternoon, NPR and PBS in the evening, and DEI after dinner. They’re about to elect an anti-Semitic socialist as mayor of New York. Neither Joe Biden nor Kamala Harris is leaving the scene. And the 2028 bench isn’t impressive.
