For the third year in a row, Americans heading into the holiday season will find a bit of good news at the grocery store. According to the American Farm Bureau Federation’s 40th annual Thanksgiving survey, the average cost of a classic Thanksgiving dinner for 10 people has fallen to $55.18, or about $5.52 per person. That is a 5 percent decline from last year and a notable drop from the all-time high of $64.05 recorded in 2022. While food inflation has weighed heavily on family budgets over the past several years, this year’s numbers suggest that at least one holiday tradition is becoming slightly more affordable.
Much of the improvement comes from lower turkey prices. The centerpiece of the traditional Thanksgiving meal (and also the most expensive component) averages $21.50 for a 16-pound bird, a 16 percent decline from last year. That being said, wholesale turkey prices are higher, but grocery stores are hoping to increase demand for birds this year by offering lower prices. In addition, lower commodity prices, particularly for wheat, have helped pull down the cost of staples such as stuffing mix and dinner rolls.
Yet the broader picture is more complicated than the price of a turkey might suggest. While several items fell in cost, others rose sharply. Fresh vegetables and sweet potatoes increased significantly, with the survey showing the price of a veggie tray rising more than 60 percent and sweet potatoes up 37 percent. These jumps highlight ongoing pressures in produce markets, which remain vulnerable to weather disruptions, labor shortages, and supply-chain instability. In North Carolina, the nation’s largest sweet potato producer, recent hurricane damage contributed directly to higher prices.
The survey also revealed considerable regional variation. Households in the South will see the lowest average cost, around $50.01, while those in the Northeast and West face totals exceeding $60. For families that opt for a larger, expanded menu including ham, green beans, and potatoes, the national average climbs to $77.09.
Beyond consumer prices, the Thanksgiving survey also hints at deeper issues within American agriculture. Even as grocery totals decline, farmers continue facing historically low crop prices, high supply-side costs, and persistent uncertainty in global trade. The Farm Bureau notes that the U.S. lost 15,000 farms last year, a sobering reminder that less expensive holiday meals do not necessarily translate into healthy margins for the people growing the food.
Taken together, this year’s Thanksgiving data offers a mixed but meaningful message. Families will spend a little less to gather around the table, which matters in a time of tight budgets and ongoing cost-of-living concerns. At the same time, the uneven shifts in food prices and the ongoing strain on farmers show that affordability at checkout is only one piece of a much larger picture. The resilience of the food system, the economic realities of growers, and the challenges posed by extreme weather and supply chain pressures all continue to play a role in shaping what shows up on the Thanksgiving table.
Still, in a year full of economic uncertainty, a 5 percent decline in the cost of the traditional holiday meal is welcome news. Even as long-term agricultural and market challenges remain, Americans can appreciate a small but significant bit of relief as they sit down, give thanks, and share a meal together.
