Progressives are celebrating the results of Tuesday’s Texas primaries. Their excitement centers on the headline that Democratic turnout exceeded Republican turnout by roughly 200,000 votes. It is the first time that has happened in a non-presidential primary year since 2002.
Predictably, that statistic has triggered a wave of commentary suggesting it is a sign of what is coming in November. Once again, the familiar question is circulating, “is Texas finally about to turn blue?”
Two obstacles stand in the way of that narrative. History and math.
The last time Democrats outpaced Republicans in a non-presidential primary was 2002. Yet that year, Republicans dominated the general election. Every statewide Republican candidate won by double digits except the lieutenant governor race, which was decided by about five points. Critics will argue that 2002 was a different era, just one year after the September 11 attacks. Fair enough. But the more recent record tells a similar story.
In both 2008 and 2020, Democratic primary turnout exceeded Republican turnout. In those same elections, Democratic presidential nominees Barack Obama and Joe Biden still lost Texas by 12 points and 5.5 points, respectively. Primary turnout did not translate into statewide victory.
A more important question remains unanswered, how many of these “new” primary voters are actually new to the electorate? If they were already voting in general elections, their participation Tuesday does not expand the progressive coalition. Those votes are already banked in the Democrat count for November.
So what’s different now? The vibes, I guess.
Steve Kornacki has a more sober analysis that involves math:
“In primaries and special elections, this kind of energy imbalance can really show. But November will bring a much broader electorate, and in Texas, the Senate general election could conceivably attract 10 million voters. As impressive as their show of force was Tuesday, that will leave Democrats needing to win over about 3 million additional voters in a state that delivered a 14-point victory to Trump in 2024.”
3 million additional voters.
Political enthusiasm can generate headlines and social media buzz. But elections are ultimately decided by votes, not vibes. And when the numbers are examined carefully, the path forward still looks steep.
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