Nicholas Eberstadt writes for the American Enterprise Institute about a demographic challenge for America’s future.
Can America continue to prosper, even if our country veers into an indefinite depopulation?
The question is not as outlandish as you might think. For the first time in generations—since the Great Depression—the prospect of long-term population decline is again looming on the American horizon.
Almost no serious consideration has yet been devoted to how well America might fare in the face of depopulation. That inattention could prove costly, for it is possible that depopulation could come upon us with surprising—and stunning—speed: conceivably, even before a baby born this year enters high school.
A switch from steady population growth to continuous population decline could mean wrenching changes for America, placing unfamiliar new pressures on public finances, businesses, communities, and families—indeed, on our entire national system.
Fortunately, a depopulating America can still prosper—in theory. The power of human ingenuity and adaptability made the world much richer during the era of the global “population explosion”. It can do so in an era of long-term population decline as well. American history demonstrates our nation’s exceptional advantages over others in both ingenuity and adaptability.
But major changes in policy, practice, and behavior will be required before the US can expect to succeed economically in the terra incognita of population decline.
To be blunt: America is not well positioned to pass the “stress test” that depopulation will unforgivingly impose. In fact, the US may actually be less prepared for an eventual depopulation today than it was a generation ago.
Our country has developed a whole range of undesirable new habits—political, social, and economic—over the past several decades. With steady population growth, we have managed to “afford” these, to progress despite them. We cannot count on that luxury under depopulation.
