Michael Strain explores President Donald Trump’s long-term impact on Republicans’ approach toward foreign policy.
Trump has not governed as an isolationist. But his assassination of Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani in 2020 and his decision to bomb Iran’s nuclear sites in 2025 were smart, limited, strategic strikes that carried little risk of embroiling the US in a quagmire. His daring military operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and decapitate his regime also had little chance of spiralling out of control, lasting many years or requiring American boots on the ground.
Not so with the Iran war. Trump’s high-risk decision to attempt an overthrow of the Iranian regime — and the reaction to it — demonstrates that the centre of gravity on the political right remains much closer to its George W Bush-era positions than is widely thought. Moreover, across the board, the most durable successes of the Trump era are likely to be the ones most in line with traditional conservatism. What distinguishes Trumpism is largely personal to Trump: his impulsiveness, celebrity and style. These lessons won’t be lost as the race to succeed him begins in earnest next year.
Despite the widespread view that the GOP has moved towards isolationism, Republican politicians largely support regime change in Iran — even if there is serious concern about the lack of planning for the Strait of Hormuz and Trump’s willingness to finish the job. Perhaps more surprisingly, a whopping 92 per cent of Maga Republicans support the war, according to a recent CBS News poll. It seems that isolationist Maga influencers like Tucker Carlson may have less sway than many thought — another important lesson for those who aspire to succeed Trump.
Of course, public opinion may shift if the fragile ceasefire breaks or economic pain mounts. But clearly the GOP under Trump is much closer to interventionist than isolationist.
