John Hinderaker of the Powerline blog assesses Democrats’ electoral prospects beyond this year.
Democrats think they have the GOP on the run for this year’s midterms courtesy of their Iranian allies, but a problem looms: they need a presidential candidate for 2028. It has been a while since the Democrats have fielded a strong presidential nominee. Joe Biden was pedestrian at best in 2020, and Kamala Harris was awful in 2024. Surely they can do better in 2028. Right?
Perhaps not. Rasmussen reports that Harris is still the front runner, by a wide margin:
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the 2028 primary were held today, 34% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters would vote for Harris…. This result is unchanged from our January survey.
I don’t expect Harris to run for the nomination, but she hints that she might in order to remain relevant and collect large speaking fees. Who, then, is her logical successor? Rasmussen’s most interesting finding is that Gavin Newsom’s support is rapidly declining:
California Governor Gavin Newsom holds second place among 2028 Democratic contenders, with 12% support from likely primary voters – down from 20% in January…
Why has Newsom’s support fallen? Presumably because of the widespread publicity that has lately been given to California’s sad decline on his watch. Spencer Pratt’s campaign for Mayor of Los Angeles has had a lot to do with it.
The remaining candidates are the usual suspects, none with more than 11% support–Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Pete Buttigieg, Josh Shapiro, Mark Kelly, on down to JB Pritzker at 2%. It is hard to see any of these as a serious contender against the likes of JD Vance or Marco Rubio.
I doubt that any of the candidates on this list, from Harris on down, can get the job done. As I have said before, I think the Democrats’ best bet is to find a relative unknown without much of a track record and hope that, like Bill Clinton, he turns out to be unusually talented. Who that person might be, I have no idea.
