Julianna Frieman writes for the Federalist about a fundamental challenge to the nation’s long-term future.
The federal government’s latest fertility data released last week should put to rest the illusion that America’s demographic decline is temporary. It isn’t. It’s accelerating, and it reflects something deeper than economics. These numbers are emblematic of how American men and women no longer know how to come together.
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) annual Vital Statistics Rapid Release report, the United States recorded 3,606,400 births in 2025, with a general fertility rate of 53.1 births per 1,000 women ages 15-44. That figure has been falling for years. In 2015, it was 62.5 births per 1,000 women ages 15-44, CDC data shows. In 2005, the CDC recorded 66.7 births per 1,000 women — the highest level since 1993.
In just two decades, America has lost roughly one-fifth of its fertility. In 1950, the replacement rate was approximately 4.9; the average American woman gave birth to about 5 children. Today, the U.S. replacement rate sits at roughly 2.1, according to Our World in Data. The raw number of births tells the same story. …
… And yet, much of the conversation treats this like a logistical issue, as though the birth rate would rise if America just got subsidies or tax credits right. While throwing money at couples could incentivize them to fulfill their dream of becoming parents, this approach fails to address the fact that many Americans aren’t coupling in the first place.
The relationship between men and women in the United States is strained in ways data cannot fully capture. America’s young men face contradictory expectations. Women desire men who are confident, decisive, and assertive — but men must not be so assertive that they risk social or professional consequences. Emotional intelligence and the ability to be deferential are also attractive traits to have, but women will balk at beta males who appear too weak.
