Terry Jones writes for Issues and Insights about disturbing new poll results.
Is there a serious crisis of confidence in the Social Security system? It certainly looks that way, based on the latest national online I&I/TIPP Poll, which was taken June 29 through July 2 by 1,473 Americans.
The poll’s first question asked voters: “How confident are you that Social Security will pay full scheduled benefits throughout your retirement?”
Among those responding, 43% said they were either “very confident” (16%) or “somewhat confident” (23%). But 47% answered either “not very confident” (23%) or “not at all confident” (24%). Another 10% said they were not sure.
The poll has a margin of error of +/-2.8 percentage points.
Confidence in Social Security, it seems, has a political component. Democrats (52% not confident, 40% confident) and independents (54% not confident, 34% confident) were most gloomy about Social Security’s fiscal solvency, while Republicans (39% not confident, 53% confident) were a near mirror image.
Age of those responding showed an interesting pattern: The youngest Americans, those aged 18-24 years (31% not confident, 53% confident) and those 65 years and older (45% not confident, 49% confident) were on net confident that Social Security would muddle through. Meanwhile, those in the middle of their working careers ages 25-44 years (48% not confident, 44% confident) and 45-64 years (55% not confident, 34% confident) were on net not confident.
So plainly, there is a confidence problem, particularly with current projections showing the Social Security trust fund will be empty by 2032, a mere six years from now, requiring either big tax hikes or benefit cuts or both to remain solvent.
By then, according to the June 2026 Social Security Trustees Report, incoming payroll taxes will cover only about 78% of expected benefits, leaving a massive financing hole to fill.
So the question has acquired a sense of urgency. Given the very real threat of Social Security insolvency, how should Congress deal with this looming potential financial catastrophe?
