North Carolina is one of the fastest growing states in the nation. That’s a phrase we’ve heard frequently over the last few years. Evidence for it is in the increased traffic on our roads, the growing demand for housing and more pressure on public services. According to US Census data, the state gained 1.16 million residents between 2015-2025.
So how did these changes impact public schools in North Carolina? It depends on who you ask.
A review of statistics from the North Carolina Department of Public Instruction, shows enrollment in North Carolina schools actually declined by 68,204 students or 4.7 percent from 2015-2025. Only 18 of 115 school districts recorded increases in enrollment over that time period. The gains ranged from 7,001 (Wake County Public Schools) to 29 (Camden County Public Schools). Aside from significant increases in Pender County (35 percent) Currituck County (16.2 percent) and Cabarrus County Schools (14.2 percent) the percentage increases were fairly modest, with 13 of the eighteen districts reporting increases of less than 6 percent. The average of increase of the 18 school districts over the period, was 6.9 percent. That means over the decade, the average annual increase for districts which gained enrollment was a little more than a half of percent — .69 percent.
Conversely, it also means that 97 of 115 school districts in North Carolina lost enrollment during the period 2015 to 2025. That number includes rural, urban and suburban schools.
So what is going on here?
Generally speaking, while North Carolina’s overall population may be climbing, birthrates are falling. The population of migrant students is levelling off. And, more students are attending other schools like charter or private schools.
None of this should be a surprise. These trends have been present for years.
Because it inevitably leads to smaller budgets and tough decisions, fewer students is a subject that most schools don’t like to talk about. Let’s face it, our schools are built for growth, not decline.
Declining K-12 public school enrollments are here and will be here for some time. Although they haven’t happened yet, shrinking budgets will happen. About 90 percent of school costs is tied up in labor and personnel. Reducing personnel is unavoidable. The only question is will schools make budget reductions that damage the quality of their schools or contribute to smaller but more effective schools?
Most schools want to avoid the topic. It’s time our schools begin to wrestle with these realities. Not answering the question is not a solution.
Growth? Yes, there is a lot of it in North Carolina. But don’t make the mistake of believing its impacts are uniform. It’s been unable to alter or mask some prominent trends.
