Preston Cooper explains the significant role standardized tests play in predicting college students’ likelihood of success.
Most selective colleges and universities stopped requiring standardized tests in admissions during the COVID-19 pandemic, but many have now begun to reinstate them. These policy changes highlight the role academic preparation plays in college completion outcomes. This report links the standardized test scores of students in the entering class of 2018—one of the last entering classes before the test-optional movement gained steam—to six-year college completion outcomes as of 2024.
Test scores and college completion have a strong relationship. Institutions where admitted students’ test scores are higher tend to have much stronger completion rates. For example, an institution where entering students have a 25th percentile SAT score of 900 has a predicted completion rate of just 51 percent. But an institution with a 25th percentile score of 1300 has a predicted completion rate of over 90 percent.
Even after controlling for possible confounding factors, such as institutional resources and students’ socioeconomic status, the relationship between test scores and college completion remains strong. After accounting for potential confounders, a 100-point rise in a college’s lower-bound SAT score generally required for admission is associated with a 7.9 percentage point rise in college completion rates.
Institutions where entering students’ test scores are higher tend to be more selective. But dozens of institutions marry high academic standards for admission with a relatively high acceptance rate—in other words, they tend to admit most students with certain academic qualifications. These “high standards, inclusive admissions” institutions—including George Mason University, the University of Kansas, and Drexel University—boast an average completion rate of 80 percent.
While the SAT has become somewhat easier over time and scores have risen, the test remains highly predictive of college completion rates. The SAT and ACT help college admissions officers better determine which applicants are truly prepared for higher education.
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