Matthew Continetti explores significant shifts in the Democratic Party’s coalition since Barack Obama roamed the White House.
At first glance, it seems as if the same groups that powered Mr. Obama’s rise—young people, minorities and white voters with college degrees—are behind Mr. El-Sayed’s. But looks can be deceiving.
The Wolverine State has changed since Mr. Obama’s victories in 2008 and 2012, and the Democratic Party has too. What commentator Ronald Brownstein famously dubbed Mr. Obama’s “coalition of the ascendant” is being torn apart by socialist, anti-Israel and downwardly mobile voters who are nominating candidates like Mr. El-Sayed. …
… Young voters, meanwhile, get old. Mr. Obama won 66% of 18- to 29-year-olds in 2008. In 2024, that same cohort—now 34 to 45—narrowed the partisan divide. Kamala Harris outpolled Donald Trump among 30- to 39-year-olds by only 6 points, and the 40-something vote was evenly split.
Democrats assumed that Hispanics would become as reliably partisan as blacks and Jews. Instead, they are a crucial swing vote. In 2008, Mr. Obama won their votes by 36 points. But in 2024 Ms. Harris’s margin was a mere 5. That Hispanics are trending away from Mr. Trump isn’t evidence of demographic destiny. Swing voters swing.
What has replaced the coalition of the ascendant is a coalition of the pathetic: Very Online millennials and zoomers with college and graduate degrees, few prospects and far-out beliefs. They take their cues from Sen. Bernie Sanders, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani and the Democratic Socialists of America. They want to cut off aid to Israel, abolish private health insurance and immigration enforcement, nix the Electoral College and even the Senate, pack the Supreme Court and grant statehood to Puerto Rico and the District of Columbia. Establishment Democrats want to harness its energy while encouraging it to become more moderate. Good luck.
The problem facing Democratic leaders is that the rise of socialism worsens tensions within the remnant of the coalition of the ascendant.
