Jim Geraghty of National Review Online looks past the current election cycle at Republicans’ next presidential campaign.
The easy thing to do, upon seeing the news that Texas Senator Ted Cruz is exploring a potential presidential bid in 2028, is to scoff and point to him being booed on ESPN’s College GameDay and run with the popular narrative that nobody likes Cruz. But a year is a long time in politics, and by this time next year, Republicans will probably have had a presidential debate or two. Also by this time next year, we will probably have a Democrat-controlled U.S. House of Representatives, perhaps a Democrat-controlled U.S. Senate, and President Trump’s job approval rating will probably still be around where it is right now — 40 percent or so. What’s more, once Democrats have some influence over the federal spending process, long-dormant fiscal conservative instincts tend to rejuvenate in Republicans. No matter what other issues Republican candidates want to run on in 2028, America’s worsening finances will be front and center because of how they tie to the ever-increasing cost of living. …
… Things can change quickly in American politics, particularly over a year or two. Two years ago, Republicans and Trump were riding high. Some GOP leaders believed that Latinos had shifted permanently toward their party. Recent polling indicates that demographic has flipped back, particularly in Texas.
Republicans are going to have a lousy midterm cycle, and maybe a particularly bad one.
And if it goes as badly as some suggest, will the Republican presidential primary voters of 2028 in places like Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina still have the attitude of, “Let’s keep doing the same thing”? Or will they want to kick the tires on other candidates and test-drive some other options? …
… Fiscal conservativism is really out of style . . . right up until the moment it comes back again.
