Jim Geraghty of National Review Online explores one consequence of the war with Iran.
As you have no doubt noticed if you’ve filled up your car’s gas tank in the past week, war in the Persian Gulf had an immediate effect on gas prices. From February 26 to March 5, the average price for a gallon of gasoline in the tracking by the American Automobile Association increased from $2.98 to $3.25. This morning, the national average price for a gallon of gasoline is up to $3.47.
… Energy Secretary Chris Wright appeared on Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan and said, “Yes, we have a temporary period of elevated energy prices, but it will not be long. In the worst case, this is weeks, this is not months, and it leads to a much better place. It leads to an Iran that’s defanged, that can’t threaten its neighbors, can’t threaten American soldiers, and can’t continue to drive up energy prices by making a mess of the Middle East. They can move to commerce, not conflict. . . . [Oil and gas prices] shouldn’t go much higher than they are here because the world is very well supplied with oil. There’s no energy shortage at all in the Western Hemisphere.”
U.S. production of crude oil remained near record levels as of December 2025, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. But there’s a catch. Last year, the U.S. exported about 10.7 million barrels per day in petroleum and petroleum products, and was importing about 7.9 million barrels a day. …
… It would be helpful if more U.S. refineries could easily process the sweeter crude being produced domestically. For years, this newsletter has been arguing for the need for the United States to expand its capacity to refine oil. I might as well be banging my head against a brick wall. U.S. oil refinery capacity has remained pretty flat for decades. In April 2020, we produced almost 19 million barrels per day. As of last December, we’re at 18 million. The most recent major oil refinery built in the U.S. was constructed in 1976.
