Terry Jones of Issues and Insights ponders the impact of recent polling numbers for President Donald Trump.
President Donald Trump’s approval among voters remains mostly steady as fall begins and the 2026 midterm election looms, the I&I/TIPP Poll shows. Despite the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and negative media coverage of the clearly improving U.S. economy, will Trump’s hefty political war chest and popularity among MAGA voters be Republicans’ only chance at upsetting the heavily favored Democrats in November?
The national online I&I/TIPP Poll each month queries Americans about how the president is doing, beginning with: “Overall, is your opinion of Donald Trump generally favorable, generally unfavorable, or are you not familiar enough to say one way or the other?”
This month showed little change from September: Overall, 40% of Americans said they had a “favorable” opinion of Trump, while 51% said their opinion was unfavorable. That’s little different than September’s 40% favorable, 50% unfavorable response. Also in October, 5% said they were “not familiar enough to say,” while another 4% were not sure.
That puts Trump’s “favorability gap” at -11 percentage points, basically on par with September’s -10 percentage-point gap. In other words, as the nation slides toward the 2026 midterms, Trump’s favorability seems to have plateaued, especially compared to June, when his favorability gap hit a high of minus-16 percentage points.
The national online I&I/TIPP Poll was taken by 1,488 adults from Sept. 29 through Oct. 1. The poll has a margin of error of +/-2.9 percentage points.
It’s fair to say that Trump has made little political headway. He remains unpopular with Democrats (16% favorable, 80% unfavorable) and only marginally less so among independents (26% favorable, 58% unfavorable). But he holds on to his solid Republican backing (72% favorable, 19% unfavorable).
OK, but outside of politics, who finds Trump favorable, and who doesn’t?
Believe it or not, Trump is popular with younger, prime working-age Americans. A plurality of those 18 to 24 years (44% favorable, 38% unfavorable) and those 25 to 44 years (47% favorable, 43% unfavorable) like Trump just fine.
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