Today, we released the latest installment of the Beacon Poll, a statewide survey of 1,200 Tennessee voters featuring questions about voters’ views on artificial intelligence, data centers, and the forthcoming November general election.
Senator Marsha Blackburn starts out with a commanding 21-point advantage over Democrat Jerri Green in the race for governor, 55% to 34% among likely voters. Blackburn’s big lead comes after a hard-fought and divisive Republican primary against Congressman John Rose and state Rep. Monty Fritts that left some bruised feelings within the party, but any lingering divisions have not yet dented her standing heading into November.
In a surprising twist, President Trump’s job approval in deep-red Tennessee has gone underwater for the first time since Beacon began polling the state in 2023, with just 48% of voters approving of his job performance and 51% disapproving (-3%).
While Blackburn has a commanding lead in the governor’s race, the U.S. Senate race has an even bigger spread, with incumbent Republican Bill Hagerty leading Democrat Marquita Bradshaw by 25 points (58% to 33%) among likely voters in a 2020 rematch. While a 25-point lead is substantial, it is worth noting that it is down two points from Hagerty’s 27-point victory over Bradshaw in the 2020 race.
Looking ahead to 2028, Vice President J.D. Vance is the dominant frontrunner among Tennessee Republican primary voters, leading with 56%, more than double Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s 22% and well ahead of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’s 11%.
The Democratic field is far more fragmented. Among Democratic primary voters, former Vice President Kamala Harris leads with just 30% support, followed by California Governor Gavin Newsom (18%), former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg (11%), Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (10%), Senator Mark Kelly (8%), Senator Jon Ossoff (6%), and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro (2%).
Tennesseans broadly approve of the public having access to AI tools such as ChatGPT, Gemini, or Copilot, with 54% approving and 34% disapproving (+20%). This is one of the more bipartisan findings in the poll, with Republicans (+26%), Democrats (+11%), and independents (+21%) all approving of AI tools.
But familiarity with the topic doesn’t translate into accurate knowledge. Facilities now commonly called data centers have existed in some form for more than half a century, yet only 4% of Tennesseans correctly say “more than 50 years,” while a plurality (38%) guesses they’ve only existed within the past five years, and 31% say they’re not sure. Tennesseans similarly have little idea how many data centers currently operate in the state, with 51% admitting that they’re not sure.
